The Fall 2023 GTA real estate market is done. And I’m sure that many other agents would agree with me when I say that I’m glad that it is over. Because what we saw over the last few months were some of the lowest sales numbers in quite some time.
However, with these lower sales, you would also expect a correlation of declining prices.
But that simply did not happen.
Call it stubbornness, call it resiliency. Call it strong. Despite the lower sales figures, each one of those words can still be applied to the GTA real estate market. Even with interest rates that are holding and the smatterings of recessionary talk, GTA real estate pricing remains stable. The average home prices we have now seem to be the new normal.
GTA
The GTA market experienced a drop in the average sales price of homes for the first time since August. While prices fell 3.9% from $1,125,928 in October to $1,082,179 in November, this drop is normal for this period (15 of the last 21 years). When compared to November of 2022, however, the average sales price is 0.3% higher. This figure continues a streak of six straight months of year-over-year prices that are higher than in 2022.
As mentioned, total sales fell from October to November, but only from 4,646 to 4,236 units (8.9%). Year-over-year, the decline is 6.0% from the 4,507 homes sold in November 2022. Last month’s low sales were also the second lowest on record for November, tracking with the record-low sales totals for September and October.
Also declining were new listings, which were a substantial 26.8% lower than in October (14,397 to 10,545). If we’re looking at the Fall market as a whole, however, November’s sales total is 35.1% lower than September’s. This is a large fall but not fully unexpected. It also kept the Sales-to-New-Listing ratio (SNLR) from cratering. In comparison to November of 2022, new listings are 16.5% higher than the 9,053 of last year at this time. November’s new listings are also greater than the average from 2002 to 2022, which is 9,845.
Active listings fell by 14.2% last month, from 19,540 to 16,759. November’s numbers increased SNLR, which means that the inventory that is out there is being snapped up quickly. For reference, November 2022 featured only 11,911 active listings.
Toronto
The City of Toronto’s average sales price fell to $1,051,180 from $1,127,635, a 6.8% decrease. Total sales were also down, as the 1,607 November sales fell from the 1,836 sales in October.
Mimicking the GTA’s results, new listings in the 416 tumbled again, from 5,669 to 4,184 (a 26.2% decrease). Active listings were also on the decline, to 6,998 from 7,907 in October.
In terms of the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio, the 44.9% November figure is down from October’s 45.8%. The SNLR of the GTA’s remains a tick or two higher, at 46.2, but also fell from 47.3%.
Outlook
Yes, the Fall market was a disappointment, but it’s not failing precipitously. I don’t foresee prices crashing, but I anticipate small fluctuations in average sales prices and a gradual increase in sales numbers.
Relative stability.
Interest rates have held yet again, and even though they’re still much higher than they were at February 2022’s peak, stability can foster some confidence in the market. If you’re wondering whether the winter time might be a good time for you to list your home, look to enter the buyer’s market, or perhaps both, I can help you decide based on your unique situation!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Guneet Jassal on Unsplash
