The two straight months of increases in the Average Sales Price of GTA Real Estate ended in November, with prices falling by 2.6%. While it’s disappointing to see some industry momentum slow, we can be encouraged that November’s Average Sales Price was still 2.6% higher than November 2023.
This drop in momentum isn’t a surprise, given that November typically slows. Christmas is coming, and some home seekers and sellers don’t want to deal with finalizing a large purchase during the holiday season and with a new year on the horizon.
While this can provide an opportunity for those looking while some buyers take a step back for a month or two, a slower market can certainly deter activity.
As mentioned, there are positive indicators, but let’s take a closer look at all of the GTA market numbers:
GTA
The Average Sales Price of $1,135,215 in October fell from that fall-high to $1,106,050 in November, ending two straight months of increases. While down 2.6% from the previous month, November 2024’s Average Sales Price was 2.6% higher than the $1,077,891 of November 2023. If the same comparison is made with October, October 2024 was only 1.1% higher than October 2023. In summary, year-over-year, the market is looking better than last year.
Total Sales
After a significant bump to 6,659 Total Sales in October, November’s numbers were 11.8% lower, at 5,875. Why is this not a big deal? Because Total Sales from October to November have dropped yearly for over two decades by an average of 12.4%. Compared to November 2023, November 2024’s Total Sales are 40.1% higher (4,194).
New Listings
While the market experienced a 15.3% decrease from September to October, November fell even further, by 24.4% from October (15,328 to 11,592). That may seem like a significant drop until we look at November 2023, which featured only 10,870 New Listings (6.6% higher).
With Total Sales up 40.1% year-over-year are combined with the 6.6% growth in New Listings, we have inventory being purchased quicker than in 2023,
Active Listings
Active Listings fell again, this time by 10.9% to 21,818 from 24,481 in October. Supply is still over 20K for the seventh straight month and is 30.2% higher than the 16,754 from November 2023.
Toronto
Mimicking the GTA, the Average Sales price in the City of Toronto fell from $1,165,660 to 1,080,167 (-7.3%). Total Sales dropped from 2,509 to 2,236 (-10.9%).
New Listings dropped again, from 5,959 in October to 4,360 in November (-26.8%). Active Listings continued to fall well below 10K, from 9,756 to 8,662 (-11.2%).
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) stayed above 40% in the GTA (41.0% from 40.3%). In the City of Toronto, it increased again, this time by a percentage point, from 38.3% to 39.3%.
Outlook
The first few years of COVID resulted in unfathomable prices and a flurry of market activity. But everything that goes up must come down. Since February 2022, inflation and interest rates significantly impacted real estate affordability, consumer confidence and overinflated prices, negatively affecting the market. The market will recover at some point in the future but a booming spring may not materialize. Feb 2025 marks three years since prices first started to decline so we are likely nearing the end of this downward cycle but the timing of the market bounce back remains uncertain.
If you’re unsure about entering the market in 2025, you’re not alone. Having an in depth conversation about your needs/goals, risk tolerance and your local market dynamics is essential
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Z Graphica on Unsplash
