2024 in the Real Estate industry started much like 2023 ended. Slowly.
The first two weeks saw few new listings. If you were a buyer and were looking for new listings to start your day, you had some disappointing mornings.
But then the third week of January happened. Since then, it’s been a whole new market. Not only have new listings grown, but the number of offers coming in has risen drastically.
And while the January statistics reflect the opposite of this upturn, they may not have caught up with the recent surge in activity. In the last few weeks we are seeing much more buyer interest and enthusiasm than most of last year. Offer dates and multiple offers are popping up across the city and GTA. While activity has returned to some pockets, we aren’t yet seeing runaway prices.
Whether this is a sign of renewed life from the dead quiet market of 2023, or a case of temporary CPR, time will tell. But as always, we’ll run the numbers!
GTA
After an unexpectedly small rise in the average sales price in December ($1,084,692), it fell by 5.3% to 1,026,703 in January. Not only is this a larger surprise than the numbers for the last month of 2023, but it is also the biggest decline from December to January in the 2000s.
If we look at last month versus January of 2023, it’s also 1% lower ($1,036,925). So, you could say that January of 2024 can be referred to as the new market bottom.
Total Sales
As is the norm from December to January, sales grew considerably. This time it was by 22.6%, from 3,444 to 4,223. When looking at January of 2023, last month’s sales exceeded that number by 1,123 (37% more than 3,100).
It’s almost bizarre to think that there was a market bottom in average sales price last month, but the number of sales went up by 37% from January 2023.
New Listings
Another number on the significantly positive side in January is new listings. After 3,886 new listings in December, January featured a whopping 8,312! That 113.9% increase should be contextualized though, as the average number of January new listings since 2002 is 12,692. However, January 2023 only had 7,836 new listings, so last month was only 6.1% higher than that.
Active Listings
There was a 2.7% decline in active listings in January, falling to 10,093 from 10,370 in December. When January 2023 is compared, though, last month is 8.5% higher than the 9,300 recorded last year for the same month. This means inventory is being absorbed which is another indication of renewed buyer interest.
Toronto
The average sales price in the City of Toronto dropped to under a million dollars, from $1,062,914 to $959,915, a 9.7% fall. Similar to the GTA, total sales grew to 1,472 from 1,266 in December.
When looking at new listings, they exploded to 3,456 from a paltry 1,517 in December (a 128% increase). Active listings inched up to 4,540 from 4,410 in December, a 2.9% rise.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio grew slightly, from 45% to 45.2% in January. The GTA’s SNLR also increased to 46.9% from 46.4%. We are still in more buyers market territory than sellers overall but it really depends on the market. Freehold homes in desirable neighbourhoods are faring much better than downtown condos which still have a surplus of supply carrying over from last year and the pre-construction market.
Outlook
While the January numbers don’t indicate it, I expect the February results to signify that the market is bouncing back to a healthier state than last year. The Bank of Canada held off on interest rate hikes last month which will hopefully bolster market confidence and see buyers returning with enthusiasm. We will see another rate announcement March 6th and April 10th this year. We may need to see rate cuts for the market to really take off again; however, holding off on raising them for now is a good start.
We’ll likely see a continued supply of new listings and a return of increased competition. And with more competition comes higher prices. So, if you’re thinking about buying you may want to decide sooner rather than later.
Or are you selling? Either way, the market is changing again, so it is best to stay ahead of the situation.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Debby Hudson on Unsplash
