It was a busy January for important news.
From our Prime Minister’s announcement that he is stepping down in March to the American President’s declaration of tariffs to the Premier’s call for an early election, the real estate industry and many others are feeling uncertain.
While we’re all feeling the uncertainty, the market continues on.
Let’s look at what happened in GTA real estate during the first month of 2025:
GTA
The Average Sales Price fell for the third month in a row, from $1,067,186 to $1,040,994 (2.5%). This is also the third straight year that the price has fallen during the December-to-January period. However, the 2.5% decline isn’t as steep as the 5.3% we saw for the same period last year, and it is 1.5% higher than the price in January 2024 ($1,025,226).
Maybe it was the uncertainty, or maybe it was another reason, but my estimate of a possible return to prices over $1.1M is still a bit off.
Total Sales
After the expected decline in Total Sales numbers from November to December, January’s numbers jumped 14.5%, from 3,359 to 3,847. Compared to January 2024, though, those sales are down 7.9% from 4,177.
New Listings
The outlier last month was New Listings, as 12,392 were registered, a 164.7% growth over the 4,681 in December. January of 2024 only registered 8,337, so that’s a 48.6% increase year-over-year. Keep in mind this does not account for properties that did not sell and were relisted which anecdotally seems to be a decent amount of the inventory.
Active Listings
While Active Listings didn’t rebound to the 20K we saw multiple times in 2024, they increased by 11.5% from 15,393 to 17,157. Looking back at January 2024, however, the difference is +70.2% over the 10,083 Active Listings posted a year ago. Inventory in many pockets particularly condos are not moving well this month.
Toronto
The 416’s Average Sales price fell below $1M in January, from $1,033,742 to $985,653 (-4.7%). Conversely, Total Sales rose modestly from 1,174 to 1,386 (+18.1%).
Like the GTA, the City of Toronto’s market saw a significant growth in New Listings in January. After only 1,783 New Listings were posted in December, 4,737 were registered in January (+165.7%). Active Listings also increased, from 6,232 to 6,920 (+11.0%).
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) continued to drop in the GTA, this time from 40.7% to 39.5%. In the 416, the SNLR fell from 38.9% to 38.0%. While we are still seeing a strong trend towards a buyers market with condos, turnkey freehold homes at lower price points in desirable neighbourhoods are faring better and sometimes even selling in multiple offers.
Outlook
With the significant external factors mentioned at the beginning of this blog still unsettled, I expect many buyers to take a wait-and-see approach in February and much of March. At some point this year I believe market activity will pick up. The timing is likely to be more predictable once the trade war and Canadian political situations are brought into focus.
Keep in mind some people have already been waiting years for the market to pick up (since the decline starting in Feb 2022). Families who need more space, are relocating, etc. cannot always stand to wait for more certainty to the market. At the same time, many first time home buyers are coming out of the wood work. Some who were previously priced out of the market are now able to purchase with the new mortgage regulations and housing incentives. While many investors continue to wait for more global and local certainty. Others are getting antsy and opting not to wait.
I predict the price gap between condos and freehold housing will continue to widen as it will take much longer to soak up the stale condo inventory. Those who are considering upsizing from a condo to a house should watch this trend carefully.
In a challenging market, sage guidance is essential. If you’re contemplating the best strategy for your next move, let’s chat.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Naomi Irons on Unsplash
