2023 is now past, and so is the associated GTA real estate market. Many people might think that it was a down year for real estate in the region, but I think the market turned out to be fairly strong.
What do I mean?
2023 Review
Despite interest rates that reached levels not seen in many years, the average selling price of GTA homes in 2023 was still $1,126,604. While this is down from 2022, it’s only down 5.4% from the $1,190,749 average selling price of last year.
So even with all of the extra mortgage interest charges that scared away many buyers and, subsequently, sellers, the average price did not fall all that much from the all-time peak sales year of 2022.
Additionally, 2023 featured the fewest GTA real estate sales since 2002! Only 65,982 sales were completed last year, while way back in 2002 when there were far fewer properties and fewer people to buy them, there were 74,107 sales.
As we enter 2024 and the expected interest rate cuts that follow, it’ll be interesting to see how the market reacts. Will reluctant sellers finally put their homes up for sale to give patient buyers the homes that they’ve been waiting for? Or will sellers keep holding out for a return to peak 2022 prices?
GTA
The GTA market experienced a somewhat unexpected rise in the average sales price, from $1,082,179 in November to $1,084,692 in December. It’s a small increase of 0.2%, yet a surprising increase nonetheless!
Moreover, this is only the second time since 2002 that the average sales price has risen from November to December (2010). And when we compare December 2023 with December 2022, the sales price is 3.2% higher than the posted $1,050,569 of two Decembers ago.
Exactly what this all means I am not sure. It could be an anomaly, or it could be the start of a steadily rising market in 2024.
Total Sales
Total sales did not feature the surprising rise, falling by a sizeable 18.7% to 3,444 from 4,246. This is more on point with what we expect for this particular month-to-month period, which has never experienced an increase in sales from November to December.
However, the size of this decrease is small compared to the average decrease of 32.1% for this period. The 3,444 December sales were also 11.5% higher than last December’s 3,090.
New Listings
One number that did follow the expected results is new listings. They dropped 63.1% to 3,886 from 10,545 in November. This new listing number was also down 6.6% from the 4,161 sales in December 2022. Both of these decreases are nothing to panic about, as the number of people who want to list in December is historically lower.
Active Listings
Active listings fell as well, by 31.8% from 16,759 to 10,370. When December of 2022 is referenced, however, 10,370 sales are 19.3% higher than that month’s 8,694. In summary and as in November 2023, real estate inventory is still being bought rather quickly.
Toronto
The City of Toronto’s average sales price grew to $1,062,914 from $1,051,180, a meagre 1.1% increase. Total sales fell by 21.2% to 1,266 from 1,607 in November.
New listings were also down again and this time substantially, from 4,184 to 1,517 (a 63.7% decrease). Active listings fell as well, to 4,410 from 6,998 in November, a 36.9% fall.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio crept up a tick, from 44.9% to 45% in December. The GTA’s SNLR remained higher at 46.4%, down from 46.2%.
Outlook
It’s a new year and prospective buyers and sellers will take a new look at what lies ahead for them. They’ll evaluate their 2024 financial situation and projections from economists and real estate experts.
With interest rates holding recently, and now expected to be cut in 2024, there’s optimism for increased inventory and higher sales in 2024.
What is your real estate plan for 2024? If you’re unsure of what approach to take and what your options are, I’d be happy to help you evaluate your situation!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Ricardo Loaiza on Unsplash
