After month-to-month increases in the average sales price of GTA homes in 2024, prices dropped from May to June.
Does this mean that the market is turning?
No. And here’s why:
The price fell by 0.3%, which the industry calls flat. Additionally, this drop from May to June is standard, occurring in 19 of the previous 22 years.
GTA
The decrease in sales from $1,165,691 to $1,162,167 (0.3%) was smaller than the 1.2% decline over the same period in 2023. However, June of 2023 posted an average price of $1,182,002, 1.6% higher than last month. While this isn’t relatively flat, overall prices are keeping pace with 2023.
Total Sales
Total sales slumped for the second straight month, declining from 7,013 in May to 6,213 in June. That’s an 11.4% decline and represents the fewest sales of any June since before the new millennium. This result also mimics those of April and May. And when looking back to June 2023, which featured 7.429 sales, that’s a 16.4% tumble. With fewer sales, you’d think the prices would also decline. But as we’ve already established, they are not.
New Listings
New Listings also fell in June, from 18,612 to 17,964, a slight decline of 3.5%. The positive of this fall is that unsold inventory is not continuing to accumulate. In retrospect, in June 2023, there were 15,995 New Listings, 12.3% lower than last month.
After an absorption rate (sales to all listings) of 37.7% in May, June’s dropped to 34.6%. A fall like this would usually also mean a buyer’s market, but the average sales price contradicts that expectation. We’re continuing to see a strong buyers market for condos in many areas in the sense that you can include conditions, have more leverage in negotiations and can take your time to make decisions. However houses in certain neighbourhoods are faring better, with some price points and locations still having offer dates and multiple offers.
Active Listings
Active Listings was the only marker to continue increasing, growing to 23,613 from 21,760 in May. That’s an increase of 8.5%. However, the difference is stark when looking back at June 2023, as last month’s Active Listings were 67.4% higher than the 14,108 Active Listings of the previous year. This is a sign that a lot of inventory is sitting. Since average price isn’t decreasing it likely means that many sellers are not ready to adjust price expectations at this point.
Toronto
In the 416, the average sales price fell by a more significant margin than in the GTA, from $1,193,202 to $1,173,781, but only by 1.6%. Total sales also fell from 2,701 in May to 2,236 in June, a 17.2% drop.
New Listings fell to 6,820 from 7,360 in June (7.3%), but Active Listings mirrored the GTA, gaining 594 to 9,623 from 9,029 in May (6.6%).
The City of Toronto’s Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) dropped again to 38.2% from 39.8%. The GTA’s rate also shrank last month to 40.3% from 41.6% in May. Both of these stats also indicate a buyer’s market but keep in mind that this will vary widely depending on type of home (condo vs house) and area.
Outlook
There are differing opinions on the Bank of Canada’s next move, but most economists anticipate a hold, at worst, with the possibility of a cut. So, if there’s a property that you’re looking at, acting on it now might be in your best interest.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Hrvoje Grubisic on Unsplash
