As I suggested in my February market report, we’re starting to see normal trends with the GTA real estate market. March followed along, as we’re now seeing indicators of the market heating up.
Competition between buyers is also increasing, signifying the tightening of the market as buyer demand grows. Another solid indicator is that for the first time since May of 2022, the average sale price was higher than the average list price.
GTA
The average home price in the GTA increased by 1.2% from February to March ($1,095,617 to $1,108,606). This is mostly a flat month-to-month change, which could be due to the luxury housing market yet to take flight. This usually occurs in May and early June, so that can be expected.
When looking at year-over-year prices, the decline from March of 2022 was 14.6% ($1,298,666). This decline is lower than the 17.9% decrease from February of 2022 to February 2023. This is a gap that should continue to close as we move through 2023.
Total sales grew for the second consecutive month, at +44.3% from February to March (4,793 to 6,896). And there are some interesting notes about those sales in March:
- The 11,184 new listings in March were their lowest ever level for the month
- A 44.3% drop from the 20,061 new listings in March 2022
- The 6,896 home sales were their third-lowest March total since 2002
- A 36.5% drop from March of 2022’s 10,862 sales
- Active listings were up 6.9% from February, from 9,463 to 10,120
- When comparing that to March of 2022, that’s a tiny decline of 0.4% (10,157)
- This indicates a tight market!
- When comparing that to March of 2022, that’s a tiny decline of 0.4% (10,157)
Toronto
Month-over-month, the average home price in the City of Toronto actually went down from $1,071,043 to $1,054,563. This wasn’t one region bringing down the price as West, Central, and East all experienced a lower average sales price in March.
New listings rose by over 1000, reaching 4,318; but active listings were only up from 4,110 to 4,292. The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) ratio fell again, from 46.8% to an even 46%.
Short-term Outlook
I’m expecting that inventory will grow as we move through April. This will be great news for the market, as for every purchase, there will likely be another listing. While it will take some time for the growth to become sustained, it should result in a summer peak. While this peak usually takes place in the spring, it’s just a sign of a slower developing market in 2023.
So, count on a busy summer this year if you’re in the market to buy and/or sell!
Are you deciding what to do with your home? Interested in entering the buyer’s market? 2023 has proven to be a different year, but it’s one that I can help you navigate. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707) and we can evaluate your situation.
Photo by Glen Carrie on Unsplash
