Each month in 2025, we’ve spoken of the unpredictability of the market and the geopolitical world.
But this may soon be changing.
The first indicator is that the April GTA sales price increased along with the seasonal trend.
The second indicator is that now that the federal election is over, there is optimism that the Canada-USA trade relationship may stabilize after months of uncertainty and the US president’s ever-changing tariff policies.
If the first (good-natured) meeting between Prime Minister Mark Carney and President Donald Trump is a harbinger for the Canada-USA relationship, we might be in for some stability.
Once that becomes clear, confidence in the real estate market will likely follow, meaning an increase in transactions and inventory.
First, let’s look at April:
GTA
April was the third straight month that the Average Sales Price rose (normal for spring), this time from $1,093,254 to $1,107,463 (+1.3 vs +0.8% from Feb. to March). While an Average Sales Price rise is normal as spring moves to summer, the price is still solidly below the $1,155,219 registered in 2024 (-4.1%). While the year-over-year negative differences are becoming starker, I expect closer comparisons over the next few months now that a sense of future stability can be envisioned.
Total Sales
The number of Total Sales grew by 11.8% from March to April, from 5,011 to 5,601. While 11.8% growth is a decent increase, it’s down 23.3% from April 2024. The 5,601 homes sold last month are also the lowest since 2010, when 2020 is not factored in.
New Listings
New Listings continued their upward trend in April. Though the increase didn’t reach the 43.1% growth of New Listings from February to March, the +9.1% from 17,263 to 18.836 is still noteworthy. That increase is also 8.1% higher than the 17,418 registered in April 2024.
Active Listings
After a 20.1% rise from February to March resulted in 23,462 Active Listings, April featured 27,386. This growth is lower than the previous month-to-month comparison, but the 27,386 are the most Active Listings the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board has ever recorded. Compared to last year, last month’s total easily eclipses the 17,783 from April 2024.
Toronto
The City of Toronto’s Average Sales price rose from $1,110,924 to $1,144,977 (+3.0%). Total Sales improved again, surpassing 2K and reaching 2,129, up from 1,908 in March (+4.8%).
New Listings in the 416 jumped considerably in April, from 6,421 to 7,105 (+10.7%). Active Listings passed 10K, moving from 9,122 in March to 10,563 in April (+15.8%).
The 416’s Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) fell again in April, from 35.6% to 35.1%. The SNLR fell further in the GTA, to 36.0% from 36.6%.
Outlook
As the numbers indicate, inventory continues to grow, and prices remain lower than in 2024. With the election over, and pundits suggesting that another rate cut from the Bank of Canada is in line for June, economic certainty is becoming a more realistic possibility for 2025. Exactly when remains uncertain, but it is no longer unreasonable to expect given external factors.
With the market seemingly stabilizing, I can help you assess your position and plan your next real estate move!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
