We expected November to be a slow month and it was just that. November is typically a slower seasonal month and the market has calmed considerably since the spring. The positive is that the Toronto real estate market, once running at a frenetic pace, is stable.
But, it’s also a flat market.
And that’s not really what anyone wants to see. Many buyers are waiting for prices to come down and sellers are waiting for prices to climb again. Before we look at where things might go let’s take a look at what happened in November?
GTA
Sales volume dropped from October to November, from 4,961 to 4,544 (8.4%). Keep in mind we usually see a seasonal dip this time of year.19 of the past 20 Novembers have followed this trend with 2017 being the outlier. The average decrease in sales volume is also 12.8%, meaning that this year we actually saw a more robust November in terms of sales volume.
Now, what about price?
The average selling price for homes in the GTA in November was $1,079,395, down less than 1% from the $1,089,428 in October.
Again, pretty stable.
Toronto
Toronto home sales volume experienced a 5.1% drop from October to November (1,894 to 1,798). The average sales price, meanwhile, fell 3.9% from $1,093,097 to $1,050,788, mostly due to a decrease in luxury home sales (also true for certain GTA areas). These are fairly small decreases, especially considering the seasonality trends from October to November.
Trends
Another number we can look at is the Sales-to-New-Listing Ratio (SNLR). With anything less than a 50% SNLR assumed to be a buyers’ market, what have the past few months looked like?
In November, Toronto was at 50%. This follows a range of 39 to 42% from May to July, and then up to 50% in August. September was back down to 39%.
The GTA’s numbers for November? 54% in Halton, 47% in Peel, and 54% in York and Durham. Those regions also experienced similar numbers as Toronto did earlier on in the year.
December
Right now we’re on a run of five to six months of relatively flat pricing. There is not a lot of media coverage about this market trend since there’s nothing exciting to report. December is typically the slowest month on the calendar, so if the numbers continue to decline, it is expected. Even a significant drop from November wouldn’t be a surprise.
While an additional interest rate hike by 50 basis points by the Bank of Canada came into effect this month, buyers and the media have been less reactive than after the previous increases.
But there are still active buyers out there. We sold a renovated condo townhouse in Oakville and received three offers in only two days. Many folks are looking to upsize or downsize but will only do so when the right home comes along. There has been relatively low supply of turn key and recently updated family homes on the market most of this year. Anecdotally, it seems that well-renovated or turnkey units in desirable neighbourhoods are still selling.
Want to know what else affects the market? Read this blog.
What to do
If you’d like to take advantage of the current stability and enter the market, let’s chat! Each market has it’s opportunities and downfalls. I can guide you through this period and develop a strategy to get the best results for you. For a copy of our comprehensive Buyer’s or Seller’s guide Send me an email.
Photo by Georg Eiermann on Unsplash
