Real estate in the Fall can be a furious three months. People are back from vacations and ready to sell but want to do so in the three months before winter really kicks in. It can be hectic.
It typically marks one of the higher points for the real estate market. New listings would normally begin to show up right after Labour Day and when kids went back to school. But over the last few years, September has been slower. And coming off a slow summer in 2023, where both July and August underperformed in sales and average sale price, could we expect this September to bounce back to the September of old?
What happened was more like something in the middle.
GTA
The average sale price of homes in the GTA increased from $1,082,496 in August to $1,119,428 in September. This increase of 3.2% directly counteracted the drop of 3.2% from July to August. This figure is also 3.0% higher than the $1,086,538 sales price in September 2022. While that still puts the GTA behind the May 2023 high of $1,196,101, it’s still a significant bump.
The total number of sales, despite the average price increase, actually fell by 12.3% to 4,642 from 5,294. This 12.3% fall might seem concerning at first glance but over the last 20 August-to-September periods, this has happened nine times. This number is also down by 7.1% when compared to September 2022, when 4,999 homes welcomed new owners.
The new listings numbers jumped significantly, by 32.2% to 16,258 from 12,296 in August. Again, however, this leap isn’t without precedent, as the average August-to-September increase over the last 20 years is 23.7%.
Active listings also vaulted higher, to 18,912 from 15,497 in August. That’s a 22.2% increase. Should the trend of fewer sales and greater listing numbers continue, the active listing numbers are going to climb quite a bit higher before winter hits.
Toronto
August to September for the City of Toronto revealed a nearly identical average sale price as in the GTA, at $1,119,452 ($24 higher). This figure is up over $100K from the $1,005,945 August average price. And also similar to the GTA, total sales fell in the 416. There were 1,744 sales, down from 1,891 in August.
New listings rocketed to 6,517 from 4,330 in August after two consecutive monthly decreases. Active listings also rose to 7,580 from 6,059 in August.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio plunged to 47.3% from 49.3%. The GTA’s SNLR fell below 50%, at 48.9%, well below the 51.1% in August.
Outlook
The increase in the average sale price from August to September was higher than expected, given how the summer went. But I’m not expecting a significant rise for the rest of the fall. There is a lot of inventory on the market right now, so there are more options for buyers. However, there are still some sellers who may wait to list, still holding out hope for a bump in average sales prices. If you’re a buyer, you have more selection right now, so see what’s out there for you!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Debby Hudson on Unsplash
