It was a month of long-awaited good real estate news. Good news for buyers, good news for sellers, and good news for homeowners.
September started with a third consecutive interest rate cut, especially important for homeowners with variable-rate mortgages. An expected fourth straight cut is also projected for October 23rd. There is debate whether this will be one cut of 0.5% in October or two cuts of 0.25%, one in October and one in December. Either way, the target rate of 3.75% for late winter or early spring appears in range.
And with mortgage rules changing on December 15th, things are looking up for buyers, sellers, and homeowners.
So, what else happened with the September market? Let’s dig into the numbers!
GTA
In September, the Average Sales Price was up from $1,074,425 to $1,107,291 after months of decreases. Though this price is down less than one percent compared to September 2023 ($1,118,215), it’s good to see a small increase. I expect prices will steadily increase over the next few months as interest rates maintain their downward trajectory and buyers’ confidence in the market continues.
Total Sales
There were more GTA homes sold in September than in August, though it was only a mild increase from 4,975 to 4,996, for a growth of less than 1%. Year-over-year, however, the growth was 8.5% (4,606). This is slower than the typical Fall boom but at least we’re trending in the right direction.
New Listings
New Listings exploded from August to September, catapulting from 12,547 to 18,089, a 44.1% increase. However, the growth compared to September 2023 was much smaller, at 10.5%.
Active Listings
Given the lower sales volume and huge boost in new listings, the upward trend for active listings continued in September, rising from 22,653 in August to 25,612 (+13%). That’s five straight months that Active Listings have eclipsed 20,000 units on the market as supply maintains steady growth. This means that properties aren’t being readily absorbed and supply is sitting.
Toronto
September featured a considerable increase in the 416’s Average Sales price to $1,113,671 from $1,029,069, an 8.2% rise. However, the increase was smaller when looking at Total Sales, which grew from 1,718 to 1,808, a 5.2% difference.
After only 4,177 New Listings were tallied in August, September reached a busy 7,074 (+69.3%). Active Listings in the City of Toronto also moved much higher, with 10,022 homes on the market versus 8,625 in August (+16.2%).
Sales-to-New-Listings (SNLR) did not move significantly in the GTA or the 416. In the GTA, the SNLR reached 39.3%, down from 39.7% in August. In the core, the rate fell by two-tenths of a percent from August to 37.4%.
Outlook
As mentioned, confidence in the market should continue to grow, resulting in price increases in the near future. Since inflation has stabilized, interest rates are dropping, and new mortgage rules are on the horizon, the strength of the GTA real estate market looks promising as we enter 2025.
We’ll continue to see distinct differences between the condo and freehold market (the latter being stronger) as an oversupply of condos gets slowly absorbed. Keep in mind that pre-construction projects are not selling to completion and starting construction at this point in time so at some point in the future (likely 3-4 years from now) we will have an incredible sharp tightening of supply which will likely lead to quickly accelerating prices.
If you are looking for a new home, there is plenty of choice, so if you’re ready, it might be a good time to see if your next home is available. I can help you sort it all out!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Joseph Gonzalez on Unsplash
