While the effects are still being measured, early returns on the Bank of Canada’s September rate cut are good for GTA home buyers. Although the number of New Listings decreased last month compared to August, it was the second-highest total for a September since 2001. Additionally, home sales continued to outperform those of 2024.
With another rate cut in October more likely than not, lower borrowing costs should maintain a strong buyer’s market and prompt more economic activity that results from home purchases.
Let’s dig into the rest of the numbers for September:
GTA
The Average Sales Price rose for the first time in four months, albeit slightly, from $1,022,143 in August to $1,059,377 in September (+3.6%). While it is a month-to-month increase, this is one of the few metrics that remains down compared to year-over-year. September 2024’s Average Sales Price was $1,112,113 (4.7% higher than last month).
Total Sales
After a significant fall to 5,211 in August, Total Sales rose 7.3% to 5,592 homes sold in September. This particular rise from August to September is rare, so it’ll be interesting to see if it’s an aberration or the start of a busy fall. The 5,592 sales were also 8.5% greater than the 5,155 sold in September 2024.
New Listings
Following three straight months of declines, New Listings exploded in September, notching 19,260. That’s 37.2% more than the “paltry” 14,038 in August. September’s New Listings now rank second since 2001, only behind 2020 (20,420). When compared to 2024, last month was 3.9% higher than the 18,259 New Listings registered in September of that year.
Active Listings
Active Listings saw growth for the first time in four months, rising from 27,495 in August to 29,394 in September (+6.9%). The positive comparison to 2024 continues with Active Listings, as September 2024 only recorded 24,712, representing an 18.9% increase year-over-year.
Toronto
The dip below $1M in the Average Sales Price in the core was brief, as September’s number reached $1,089,918 (+9.9%). Compared to last September’s $1,113,671, it’s 2.1% lower than 2024.
Total Sales jumped back up above 2K, from 1,779 in August to 2,063 in September. That’s an increase of 16.0%.
New Listings jumped considerably from August to September in the 416. 7,182 new homes were listed after only 4,538 were put on the market in August (+36.8%). Active Listings surpassed 10K again, leaping from 9,644 in August to 10,653 in September (+10.5%).
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) in Toronto rose to 34.8% from 34.5%. In the GTA, the SNLR inched up from 34.5% to 34.6%.
Outlook
September’s rate cut means affordability has increased further. And while the market still belongs to the buyer, a run on the glut of inventory has yet to take place. Perhaps some buyers are still waiting for further rate cuts or signs of economic certainty. An expected rate cut in October could be the last domino that prompts that run, which could start shifting the market favourability from buyer to seller due to increased competitiveness. But that remains to be seen.
Unsure of whether to wait or dive in? I can provide a unique, expert assessment for you, whether you’re buying or selling.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
