This may sound familiar, but the average GTA home price fell again last month. That makes three straight months of decreases.
As we approach fall, which is typically a strong season for sales, can we still anticipate growth and increases in sales and prices, given what has happened over the past quarter?
I’ll get into that later. First, let’s detail what happened with GTA Real Estate in August.
GTA
As I mentioned last month, a modest decline in the core Real Estate numbers was expected. The Average Sales Price in August was down to $1,074,425 after falling to $1,106,617 in July (-2.9%). This number is the lowest average home price since January. But, before getting too concerned, Average Sales prices typically fall from June to August so no surprises there. If we look at last August, when the Average Sales price was $1,082,882, there is only a 0.8% difference. Using the same year-to-year comparison, July yielded only a 0.9% decrease. This indicates stability.
Total Sales
Last month’s Total Sales were the lowest we’ve ever seen in August. Sales dipped to 4,975, a 7.7% fall from the 5,391 Total Sales in July. Compared to August 2023, where 5,351 sales occurred, last month was 5.3% lower.
Year-to-date, Total Sales reached 42,121, down from 44,053 this time last year. So, after the GTA market accumulated the lowest number of sales ever seen in the 2000s, a new record low appears to be in the offing for 2024.
New Listings
For a third straight month (does this sound repetitive?), New Listings also fell. After 16,296 New Listings appeared in July, 12,547 new properties appeared in August. That’s a sizeable 23% drop. When we checked on August 2023, there were 1.5% fewer, at 12,538.
Active Listings
Active Listings continued to stay well above 20,000, at 22,653 in August. That’s four straight months that Active Listings have eclipsed this mark. Compared to July, that number is 5.1% lower (23,877). However, in August 2023, there were only 15,492 Active Listings. That’s 46.2% year-over-year growth! When comparing May, June, and July to their respective Active Listing numbers in 2023, however, at 83.4%, 67.4%, and 55.4%, respectively, the gap between 2024 and 2023 has tightened significantly.
Toronto
The City of Toronto also continued to experience reduced Average Sales prices, as the fall over this month-to-month period was $1,087,436 in July to $1,029,069, a decrease of 5.4%. Total Sales also fell, from 1,987 to 1,718, a 13.5% plunge.
New Listings in the 416 fell precipitously, from 6,074 in July to 4,177 in August (-31.2%). While they didn’t fall as steeply, Active Listings in the City of Toronto hit 8,625 after reaching 9,421 in July (8.4%).
The ratio of Sales-to-New-Listings (SNLR) only dropped by a tenth of a percentage point, from 37.7% in July to 37.6% in August. GTA’s rate fell slightly more to 39.5% after hitting 39.7% in July.
Outlook
As anticipated, the Bank of Canada cut its interest rate in September, putting the new rate at 4.25%. With inflation where it is, another cut in October is expected.
You’ll get different opinions depending on who you ask about what to expect from the GTA Real Estate market. With so many Active Listings already heading into a typically busy period in home sales, I expect buyers to have many more choices in the coming months. However, given the planned rate cuts and likely renewed enthusiasm for buyers as a result, the market is likely to pick up speed later this year or early 2025. I expect that freehold housing will be stronger than the condo market until late 2025 or beyond as there is so much excess condo supply to absorb. Long term however, with so many condo projects struggling to sell enough units to begin construction, and a stall on new projects, the resulting future supply shortage will eventually set the condo market ablaze.
It can be challenging to navigate, so if you’re considering entering the market, I can help prepare you for what I anticipate for the fall.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Noah Silliman on Unsplash
