After March, I think that it’s safe to say that the market is back.
But what does that mean?
Real Estate agents typically believe that when conditions favour sellers, we’re back to normal market conditions.
These are conditions that we’re familiar with and are the most common over the last 20+ years.
Now let’s see what happened in March.
GTA
While it wasn’t near the substantial 8.0% increase from January to February, the average sales price in the GTA increased by 1.2% from $1,108,720 in February to $1,121,615 in March.
March 2024’s average price is also 1.3% higher than March 2023 ($1,107,018). As we look to April, though, the last few years have been a mixed bag of increases and decreases from March. We saw month-to-month increases from 2002 to 2019, but then there were decreases each year from 2020 – 2022. In 2023, though, there was a 4% price increase from March to April. So overall it looks like prices are trending slowly upward and it’s unclear if part of this is a seasonal trend or overall a more competitive buyers market.
Total Sales
For a third straight month, sales numbers grew. Similar to the average sales price, total sales rose, just not like the 32.8% from January to February. However, the 17% increase from 5,607 sales in February to 6,560 in March is, while significant, actually the second-lowest March total since 2002! As evidence, last month’s growth to 6,560 sales is 4.5% lower than in March 2023. Spring usually brings more activity but given that March break and Easter fell in close proximity, this could have stunted activity.
New Listings
There was an upturn in New Listings, but only by 15.1%. There were 11,396 New Listings in February, which increased to 13,120 in March. This means that Active Listings are rising. Comparable to the sales numbers, the total New Listings were well below the average for March and this may have also impacted a lower sales volume.
Active Listings
To few agents’ surprise, Active Listings grew from February to March. This time it was by over 1K from 11,102 to 12,459. That 12.2% increase is almost half of the year-over-year percentage growth from the 10,121 Active Listings of March 2023. Most agents and their frustrated buyer clients in the freehold market are thirsty for more supply especially in neighbourhoods known for their schools and family friendly vibes. In these pockets you’re likely to be encouraging offer dates and bully offers that were a regular occurrence in the pre-covid days. Condos continue to be more plentiful with folks struggling to close on their pre-construction deals and a lack of investor activity. In this market buyers are still enjoying more negotiation power and time to make decisions.
Toronto
The average sales price rose in the city, but not by as much as the GTA. February’s $1,072,598 average sales price was only 1.3% lower than March’s $1,087,017. Total sales, on the other hand, grew considerably from 1,971 in February to 2,308 in March. That’s a 17% jump.
The 416’s New Listings continued to rise, moving from 4,347 in February to 4,917 in March. That’s a 13.1% growth. Active Listings increased by over another 500 homes, from 5,017 to 5,579 in March, an 11.2% upsurge.
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) in the City of Toronto fell again. This time to 43.9% in March from 44.8% in February. The SNLR in the GTA also tumbled, from 46.6% to 45.8%. While this looks very favourable to buyers, as we touched on above, in certain freehold neighbourhoods, it’s a seller’s market. I suspect that these numbers are heavily impacted by the condo and income property market. It’s a great time to buy investment properties for that reason.
Outlook
March sustained the slow increase in the average sales price and total sales, which should continue in April. I also expect New Listings to rise and more buyers to enter the market. And with April looking like we’ll finally see some consistently warmer spring weather, more people will likely get involved in the market.
The Bank of Canada held rates this week and many are forecasting the next announcement to be a cut to compensate for a slowing economy. This coincides with my market optimism for at least the next few months of 2024.
