GTA real estate numbers continued to rise in April, with the average sales price and total number of sales increasing.
New listings, as I expected, were due for a significant bump. And that is just what happened in April. But there are other interesting numbers to discuss, so let’s dive into April’s results!
GTA
After a small 1.2% month-to-month average sales price increase from February to March, March to April yielded solid 3.1% growth, from $1,121,615 to $1,156,167.
The average price in April is 0.3% higher than April 2023’s $1,152,519. We’re now significantly ahead of any average price from last year’s fall market, indicating that we’re on a slow and steady rise back to the peak of $1.2M.
Total Sales
While it wasn’t the 17% month-to-month increase from February to March, March to April’s 8.4% increase means sales have grown for a fourth straight month (6,560 to 7,114). However, outside of 2020, 7,114 are the fewest sales for an April of the entire 2000s; it is also 5.0% lower than April 2023. While we are seeing an improvement month to month, the sales volume is quite underwhelming.
New Listings
As mentioned, New Listings soared by 29.1% to 16,941 from 13,120 in March. While this is encouraging for buyers looking for an increased and fresh selection, it’s puzzling that overall Total Sales didn’t enjoy a similar increase to New Listings. To compare, there were 5,500 more listings this April than last, but 5% fewer sales. Last month’s New Listings are also up 47.2% over April 2023’s paltry 11,364.
Active Listings
Active Listings exploded by 45.2% from March to April, to 18,088 from 12,459. Further, when comparing that figure to April of 2023, the growth is a whopping 74.4% (10,373). The abundance of Active and New Listings indicates that inventory is sitting and buyers are waiting for interest rates to drop before purchasing a new home. This phenomenon isn’t consistent across housing types or neighbourhoods however. Freehold homes in family friendly neighbourhoods are faring much better than investment type condos in urban centers. Likely both New Listings and Active Listings stats are being skewed by the sluggish condo market across the GTA.
Toronto
Toronto’s average sales price grew by a solid 5.9%, from $1,087,017 to $1,152,200. When looking at total sales, it was a small jump to 2,581 from 2,308 in March, an 11.8% increase.
New Listings in the 416 reflected that of the GTA, rising from 4,917 in March to 6,655 in April. That’s a 35.3% upturn. Growth continued in the Active Listings category, shooting up from 5,579 in March to 7,506, a 34.5% gain. This indicates that although we are seeing more listings coming to market, much of the inventory isn’t being absorbed.
As discussed, it’s no surprise that the Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) in the City of Toronto continued to fall. After a rate of 43.9% in March, April yielded a 41.9% SNLR. The GTA’s rate for April is higher than the 416 but also fell, from 45.8% to 43.8%.
Similar to the GTA market, the overall condo market statistics are more depressed than freehold homes in desirable neighbourhoods. For March and April, while many condo listings continue to sit, many freehold homes at competitive price points are selling in multiple offers or in bully offers. The BoC announcement indicating that a rate hike was not imminent, took some of the wind out of the market and the past 2-3 weeks have been slower than the rest of the spring market.
Outlook
With New Listings rising and May typically a good sales month, I expect the average sales price and total sales to keep increasing. However, with interest rates still holding, a surge in sales is unlikely to occur until there are strong indications that a rate cut is coming. Or perhaps, until the interest rates decrease. A recent poll indicated that many buyers are planning on waiting until rates ease up or 2025 to make their move.
If you’re in the market for a new home, options are growing. While you may be waiting for an interest rate cut, there could be some homes you may not want to miss.
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
Photo by Elena Mozhvilo on Unsplash
