It was anticipated that after January ended, there would be some idea of where the market was headed.
And while it’s now a month later, there still isn’t a clear direction.
What we do know is that the continental uncertainty contributed to a quieter month in the GTA Real Estate market. We also know that February’s results did not follow the trends for this time of year.
Based on the February numbers, both buyers and sellers seem to be waiting for some indication of certainty. Let’s examine what happened.
GTA
After three months of declines, the Average Sales Price grew from $1,040,994 to $1,084,547 (+4.2%). While this is the norm from January to February, it’s still reassuring to see a positive number for this metric, given the economic circumstances. Looking back at this period in 2024, the Average Sales Price was $1,109,450 (-2.2%). Since January 2025 had a higher price than January 2024, we’re unsure if February’s year-over-year decline is a one-off or the beginning of a development.
Total Sales
A bump in Total Sales is usually the result from January to February. While the GTA did experience this, it was a much smaller increase than usual. The average increase in Total Sales was 44.3% from 2002 – 2024, so the 4.9% increase is tiny in comparison (3,847 to 4,037). In 2024, there were 5,562 Total Sales for a 27.4% year-over-year fall. The 4,037 Total Sales are also the lowest of any February in the last 23 years.
New Listings
As mentioned, buyers and sellers took a break in February. As a result, for the first time since 2009, New Listings decreased from January to February (12,392 – 12,066), a 2.6% decrease. February 2024 showcased only 11,433 New Listings, so while February 2025 was higher than that, it was only by 5.4%. I say only because January 2025’s year-over-year growth was 48.6%.
Active Listings
Active Listings continued their upward trajectory from 17,157 to 19,536 (+13.9). That’s a 76.0% increase compared to February 2024’s 11,097. That is also higher than the 70.2% year-over-year increase for January 2024 – January 2025, as the market seems poised to reach the 20K mark this month.
Toronto
The Average Sales price in the 416 bounced back above $1M, from $985,653 to $1,087,077 (+10.3%). Moreover, Total Sales continued to rise modestly, from 1,386 to 1,540 (+11.1%).
February New Listings in the City of Toronto market fell slightly, from 4,737 to 4,641 (-2.0%). After a massive month-to-month increase in January, though (+165.7%), a repeat wasn’t expected. Active Listings were on the upward swing, however, from 6,920 to 7,809 (+12.9%).
The Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR) continued to drop in the GTA, this time from 39.5% to 38.4%. The story was the same in the 416, as the SNLR also fell from 38.0% to 37.1%.
Outlook
While uncertainty remains across Canada and North America, spring is near, and another rate cut is expected this month to trigger more economic activity. That, along with the beginning of a busy season, should see buyers and sellers slowly return from the hibernation of their wait-and-see approach.
A lot is going on, and everyone’s situation is different, so if you need some guidance and evaluation, I can help!
Thinking of moving to the next stage? Let’s chat. Send me an email (hillary@hillarylane.ca) or text/phone (416-882-4707).
